Homicide Fatalities Gap
About
The Homicide Fatalities Gap measures the ratio of homicide-related deaths among Black Americans to homicide-related deaths among White Americans in a county. Individuals from both Hispanic and non-Hispanic ethnicities are included. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) mortality data, in 2022, there were 13,446 Black homicide victims in the U.S. 1,2. The homicide rate among Black victims in the U.S. was 29.0 per 100,000. For that year, the national homicide rate was 7.7 per 100,000, and for white victims, the national homicide rate was 4.2 per 100,000. The Black homicide victimization rate was nearly four times the overall homicide victimization rate and nearly seven times the white homicide victimization rate. These data highlight the persistent and significant racial disparities in homicide victimization in the U.S.
Why is the Homicide Fatalities Gap important to the Structural Racism and Discrimination (SRD) Index?
The Homicide Fatalities Gap, which reflects the disparity in homicide rate between Black and White populations, is a critical measure of the impact of structural racism in the U.S. criminal justice system. This gap is rooted in long-standing structural inequalities, including limited access to education, employment opportunities, and healthcare, which increase exposure to violence and reduce the likelihood of social mobility 3. Furthermore, Black Americans are more likely to reside in segregated and high-poverty areas with increased risks of homicides due to concentrated disadvantage and a lack of investment in community resources 4. Racial disparities in policing and overrepresentation of arrests among Black Americans are also racist and discriminatory factors associated with higher rates of homicides among Black Americans 5. Black Americans are arrested at 2.6 times the per-capita rate of all other Americans for all types of crime, with a significantly higher ratio for murder (6.3 times) and robbery (8.1 times) 6. Addressing this gap via community-based interventions and policies is essential to tackling the underlying systemic issues that perpetuate violence in marginalized communities.
What is the expected relation to Structural Racism and Discrimination?
A higher value of the Homicide Fatalities Gap between Black and White populations contributes to a higher value or score of the SRD Index.
How is the Firearm Fatalities Gap calculated?
We obtained data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) WONDER 7. The databases used are as follows: 1) National Vital Statistics System, Mortality 1999-2020, released in 2021, 2) National Vital Statistics System, Mortality: Compressed Mortality File 1999-2016, released in 2017, and 3) National Vital Statistics System, Mortality: Compressed Mortality File 1979-1998. Series 20, No. 2A, 2000 and CMF 1989-1998, Series 20, No. 2E, 2003. All the data is publicly available.
For a stable trend of rates, we used cumulative data from five years for a given decadal year. For example, 2020 = 2016-2020; 2010 = 2006-2010; 2000 = 1996-2000; 1990 = 1986-1990. For the year 2000, data were available for 1996-1998 and 1999-2000. So the data from both files was used to get the total data for 1996-2000.
Data Source
Data
We used the following two variables at the county level.
| Variables* | Year | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Rate of Homicide-related Deaths per 100,000 Black Population | 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | Number |
| Rate of Homicide-related Deaths per 100,000 White Population | 1990 | 2000 | 2010 | 2020 | Number |
* Individuals from both Hispanic and non-Hispanic ethnicities are included.
Methodology
We calculated the Homicide Fatalities Gap using a ratio formula:
$$
RPrBlWhHoDeath = \frac{RBlHoDeath}{RWhHoDeath}
$$
Where:
RPrBlWhHoDeath: Gap in arrests for property crime between Black or African American and White populations
RBlHoDeath = BlHoDeath / BlPop: Rate of homicide-related deaths per 100,000 population for the Black or African American population
RWhHoDeath = WhHoDeath / WhPop: Rate of homicide-related deaths per 100,000 population for the White population
Missing Data
Where data from the source was “suppressed,” i.e., when the number of deaths was less than 10, we imputed as “5” for our analysis. Other missing values were filled using the median value of the adjacent neighbors. The adjacent neighbors were identified using the PolygonNeighbors tool in Python’s arcpy.analysis module 8. The adjacency is defined by any common boundary or vertex between two counties. After imputing missing data, we have 91 counties with no data in 2020, 78 counties with no data in 2010, and 2 counties (Alaska) with no data in 1990. There was no missing data in 2000.
References
1. FBI Supplementary Homicide Report data. Downloaded from the Crime Data Explorer on January 26, 2024. Available at: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/home.
2. Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crime Data Explorer, Law Enforcement Collections. Accessed May 28, 2024. Available at: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/le/uof.
3. Peterson, R. D., & Krivo, L. J. (2010). Divergent social worlds: Neighborhood crime and the racial-spatial divide. Russell Sage Foundation.
4. Sampson, R. J. (2012). Great American city: Chicago and the enduring neighborhood effect. University of Chicago Press.
5. Unnever, J. D., Stults, B. J., & Messner, S. F. (2023). Structural racism and criminal violence: An analysis of state-level variation in homicide. Race and Justice, 13(4), 433-462.
6. Strassle, P. D., Kendrick, P., Baumann, M. M., Kelly, Y. O., Li, Z., Schmidt, C., … & GBD US Health Disparities Collaborators. (2025). Homicide Rates Across County, Race, Ethnicity, Age, and Sex in the US: A Global Burden of Disease Study. JAMA Network Open, 8(2), e2462069-e2462069.
7. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics. National Vital Statistics System, Mortality 1999-2020 on CDC WONDER Online Database, released in 2021. Data are from the Multiple Cause of Death Files, 1999-2020, as compiled from data provided by the 57 vital statistics jurisdictions through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. Accessed at http://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html on Aug 3, 2024, 4:20:22 PM
8. Virtanen, P., Gommers, R., Burovski, E., Oliphant, T. E., Weckesser, W., Cournapeau, D., … & Feng, Y. (2021). scipy/scipy: SciPy 1.6. 0. Zenodo.